My road was pretty similar and honestly a bit frustrating at first because I thought stats would make things even more complicated, but once I got used to reading them it actually simplified my decisions, instead of checking ten random opinions I now look at one solid analytical base, I personally use
https://xgscore.io/ and not because it promises wins but because it explains matches through data in a way that feels practical, they work with big volumes of stats and expected goals so you can see how often teams create real chances and how stable their defense actually is, I usually check the projected xG before lineups drop and then again closer to kickoff to see if anything shifts, over time I noticed that teams riding lucky win streaks often have weak xG numbers and eventually crash, while quiet mid-table teams with strong metrics start delivering value, another thing I like is that the service doesn’t push wild scores but focuses on probabilities which helps manage expectations, my advice is to treat it like a compass not a crystal ball, combine the data with context like injuries or weather, keep your stakes reasonable, and don’t chase losses, using a structured analytics platform helped me calm down emotionally and enjoy matches more because even when a bet loses I can understand why it made sense at the time.